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英国人均发电量跌破1970年代水平 -- The United Kingdom generates less electricity per person than in the 1970s

全球范围内,人均发电量本世纪已增长超过50%。英国的情况则相反,其人均发电量在2003年达到峰值,此后下降了超过三分之一。图中展示了自1920年以来的人均发电量。如今,英国的水平已经回到了20世纪60年代末的水平。

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Image 1: Line chart of total electricity generation per person in the United Kingdom (kilowatt‑hours) where generation rises from near zero in 1920 to a peak of about 6,700 kWh in 2003 and then declines to about 4,200 kWh in the latest year, lower than the roughly 4,300 kWh recorded in 1968. Data sources: UK DESNZ (2023) and Ember (2026). License: CC BY.

Image 2: Line chart of the share of people living below the international poverty line of $3 a day in China and Indonesia, where both countries show steep declines in extreme poverty from the mid-1980s to 2025 and China reaches near zero while Indonesia falls to about 3.7% in 2025. Data source: World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform (2026). License: CC BY.

Image 3: Bar chart of the global pathway of plastic to the ocean in million tonnes per year, showing volumes at each stage from waste generated down to the amount transported to the ocean. It shows 353 million tonnes generated, 82 million mismanaged, 19 million leaked to the environment, 6 million leaked to rivers and coasts, and 1.7 million transported to the ocean — around 0.5% of global plastic waste. Source: OECD Global Plastic Outlook (2022), data for 2019. License: CC BY.

Image 4: Line chart of average wildlife population abundance from 1970 to 2022 where the Living Planet Index falls steadily from a baseline of 1 to about 0.27, representing a 73% average decline; an inset bar shows 43% of populations increased, 7% were stable, and 50% declined. The index covers 35,803 populations across 5,790 species relative to the year 1970. Source: WWF and Zoological Society of London (2026). License: CC BY.

Image 5: Line chart of the share of newborns who die before reaching their fifth birthday by world region over time where it shows a steady decline in all regions from 1950 to 2025, with Africa remaining highest and Northern America lowest. Data source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024); data for 2024 to 2025 are projections (UN medium scenario). License: CC BY.

Image 6: Dot-and-arrow chart of median age by world region where it shows how the median age changed between 2000 and 2023. All regions show increases, with median ages roughly 17 to 19 in Africa, 23 to 31 in Latin America, 25 to 32 in Asia, 30 to 33 in Oceania, 34 to 38 in Northern America, and 37 to 42 in Europe. Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024). License: CC BY.

Image 7: Line chart of oil production in terawatt-hours per year where the United States' production falls modestly through the 1990s and 2000s then rises sharply after about 2010 to surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia and reach roughly 10,000 TWh by 2025. Other major producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Norway) show smaller fluctuations and remain below the U.S. level. Data source: Energy Institute — Statistical Review of World Energy (2026). License: CC BY.

评论

社区讨论在“用电量下降是进步还是衰退”上明显分裂:不少人认为下降主要来自房屋保温、白炽灯转向发光二极管灯以及家电整体更省电,是值得欢迎的效率提升;另一派则强调去工业化、能源贫困、进口电力和电网误判,警告未来电气化会推高需求,不能简单庆祝。少数归咎移民与殖民遗产、或用反话嘲讽英国能源市场与政客承诺的言论,则代表了讨论中的讽刺与愤怒情绪。

认为用电下降主要来自能效提升,是值得欢迎的进步

  • 房屋保温明显改善,照明从白炽灯、节能灯转向发光二极管灯,机顶盒等家电功耗也远低于九十年代;用五只 60 瓦白炽灯换成 8 瓦发光二极管灯、每天开八小时的粗略估算,就能解释相当一部分降幅(高赞) > 一个家庭把五只 60 瓦白炽灯换成 8 瓦发光二极管灯、每天开八小时,就能省下约两度电,和图中降幅量级吻合(@advisedwang)
  • 除照明外,家电效率也整体跃升,例如机顶盒功耗相比九十年代可下降约 30 倍,说明“更省电”是普遍现象,而非个别案例(较多人)

认为高耗电不等于国家强大,不必把下降当成衰退

  • 把能源消耗速度当成爱国自豪感,就像以开大排量低效车为荣,默认“过度且不必要的生产也是好事”,这种盲目心态受到质疑(少数人) > 把高能耗当成好事,就像以开大排量低效车为荣,默认过度且不必要的生产也是好事(@orf)

认为下降也来自去工业化、进口电力与能源贫困,不能只庆祝

  • 国际能源署数据显示降幅大致一半来自工业、一半来自居民,说明去工业化是部分原因,家庭能效提升同样重要;“衰退叙事”和“进步叙事”其实各占一块(较多人) > 国际能源署的数据显示降幅大致一半来自工业、一半来自居民,去工业化只是故事的一部分,家庭能效提升同样重要(@klelatti)
  • 文章本身也指出,需求下降既来自可喜的能效改进,也有令人遗憾的去工业化,以及更多依赖进口电力(较多人)

警告电气化将推高需求,批评电网按需求下降做规划

  • 供暖和交通都要电气化,未来电力需求应上升而非下降;电网若仍假设需求会减少,并用间歇供电、让用户只能在电力富余时洗衣来应对,这是技术倒退(少数人) > 在供暖和交通都要电气化的情况下,电网却仍假设需求会下降,甚至想用间歇供电让用户迁就电力,这是技术进步的倒退(@cm2187)

反驳“限电/配给”恐慌,认为下降是需求侧变化而非计划停电

  • 文章并未说要配给或限电;下降来自需求减少、能效提升、去工业化和进口增加,没人计划对居民实行停电(少数人)

将能源与基础设施压力归咎于移民和殖民遗产

  • 把发电、供水与住房紧张归因于二十年净流入约一千两百万人,认为供给会跟不上需求(少数人)
  • 认为英国只是失去殖民地后,回到资源贫瘠岛国的“均值回归”,不再靠帝国资源支撑(少数人)

对英国能源市场与政策承诺的讽刺

  • 反话讽刺英国拥有发达国家里最糟的能源市场,所谓“很快会更便宜、更可靠”只是乔治·蒙比奥特式评论员的空话(少数人)

有价值的补充

  • 按每户五只 60 瓦白炽灯每天开八小时、换成 8 瓦发光二极管灯估算,日省约 2 千瓦时;作者随后修正为人均不足 1 千瓦时,但仍是不可忽视的一块降幅。
  • 1990 年代以来,机顶盒等家电运行功耗可比当年下降约 30 倍,说明省电趋势覆盖照明以外的大量电器。
  • 评价能源进步不能只看人均用电量:热泵比燃气锅炉耗电多得多,却更有效地利用了一次能源;关键在能源来源与有效利用,而不只是电表数字。
  • 工厂屋顶光伏、现场风电等自发自用电是否被计入“需求”,可能让分布式发电表现为需求下降,是解读数据时容易忽略的统计口径问题。